Theory Of Demographic Transition

Introduction

It is the theory of the transition from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as a country or regions develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. Most developed countries have completed the demographic transition and 

have low birth rates, most developing countries are in the process of this transition.

History of the Theory 

This theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by American demographer Warren Thompson. Laundry also made similar observations in 1934. In the 1940s and 1950s. Notestein developed a more formal theory of demographic transition. 

Explanation Of The Theory 

This theory is based on the following assumption;

1) When the birth and  death rates decreases, death rate decreases first.

2) Due to social, economic and other changes in any country, the existing high birth and death rates decrease to low birth and death rates.

Notestein distinguished three demographic state: 

1) Pre-transtional stage 

In this stage, there is high birth and death rates as a result the growth of population is not possible.

2) Transitional stage

In this stage, there is declining birth and death rates. In this stage, the death rates declines fastly than birth rate due to this there is a rapid population growth.

3) Post-transitional stage 

In this stage, there is low birth rates and death rates. 

In 1947 C.P. Blacker identified five stages of demographic transition 

1) High Stationary Stage

It has high birth and death rates and has a stable population. Agriculture base economy and less per capita country is said to be in this stage. In recent years, most of the countries in this  world has crossed this stage.

2) The Early Expanding Stage

In this stage, there is high birth but death rate is rapidly declining due to this there is a rapid population growth. The reason behind this is the improvement in health facilities. Countries like Nepal, India and Bangladesh are in this stage.

3) The Late Expanding Stage 

In this stages, there is slowly declining birth rates and rapidly declining death rates as a result the population is slowly increasing. The countries like USA, Canada, Japan etc are said to be in this stage. 

4)  The Low Stationary Stage 

This stage has low and equal birth and death rates. There is no actual growth in the population. Countries like Australia, Germany, New Zealand are in this stage.

5) The Declining Stage

In this stage, the  death rate exceeds birth rates. Developing countries like Hungary, France etc fall in this category. 

Limitation/ Criticism of this theory

1) It is a model rather than theory. 

2) It is  not supported by the history of all countries such as in France, birth rate fall faster than death rate.

3) This theory is linked to the experience of western countries whose historical demographic trends were by themselves far from uniform.

4) It doesnot provide a time frame for a country to move from one  stage to another.