Vital Registration System

Vital Registration System is another major source of population statics. It is also called events registration systems. Various vital events such as birth, death, marriage, divorce, migration,etc related with human's life are going on during the life time. Vital Registration System is concerned with those events of births, deaths, marriage, divorce, migration, etc which are reported to the appropriate authorities, and the events are registered. The process of collecting or keeping record of such vital events regularly by concerned authorities is called vital registration. 

According to UN; Vital Registration is the legal registration, statistical recoding and reporting of occurrence of, and the collection, compilation, presentation, analysis and distribution of statistics pertaining of vital events, ie; live births, deaths, foetal deaths, marriages, divorce, abortions, legitimations, recognition, annulment and legal separation. 

In vital registration system, while registering birth events; date of birth, sex of the baby, age of mother, the residence of the mother, order of the birth, etc. are registered. Likewise, for death events; date of death occurrence, age and sex of the deceased, place of occurrence, usual residence of the deceased person, cause of death etc. are registered. In terms of martial status; age, single, sex, married, divorce, date of marriage, duration of marriage, etc. are registered. For migration; place of origin, place of destination, age, sex of migrants, cause of  migration etc. are registered. 

Vital Registration System was started from European countries in the sixteenth century. At that time the Roman Catholic Churches had made system to register and keep the records of births, deaths and marriage were kept in church. This system is supposed to have started in the countries like Britain, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden in sixteenth century. In this regard, a law that compelled to register vital events was enforced in 1836. In USA, it has been started from 1919. In Nepal, the system of registering the events of life started in 2019 BS. 

It is a regular and continuous registration of vital events. Civil registration system, which record's birth, deaths , marriages etc. ( vital statistics ), enables rates of population growth to be calculated; but are much less adequate than the national censuses. In developing countries where illiteracy rates are high and communication are poor, the problem of recording births and deaths are immense not only in rural population but also in urban areas. However, efforts are being made to improve the collection of these data in many countries.

Importance of Vital Registration System 

It is a regular and continuous registration of vital events so can be used to fulfil the scarcity of demographic statistical data of the nation. Civil registration system, which records births, deaths, marriage etc. enables rates of population growth to be calculated. Importance of vital registration system can be highlighted as; 

* It can fulfil the statistical data between two consecutive censuses. 

* Certificate of registration gets legality in the events of life. 

* It can be act as the reliable source required for formulation and implementation of population policies of nation and health, education, nutrition etc. program along with other social welfare programme.

* It can be used to improve the health status of people by implementation of the civil health programme and help in effective evaluation such programme. 

* It can be used to measure the natural increase of population and population dynamisms of the country.

Uses of Vital Registration 

The uses of Vital Registration System are; 

* Current situation of populatiob dynamics. 

* Natural change as well as total change in population size.

* Social mobility, change in status from single to married. 

* Current level and trends of demographic  drivers. 

* Birth certificate, marriage certificate and such others.

Limitation/ Drawbacks of Vital Registration 

Thought it is the most important source of population statistics but it is not free from shortcomings, which are listed below; 

* Information obtained are limited  as it is prepared for administrative purpose only. 

* In developing countries where illiteracy rates are high and communication are poor, the problem of recording births and deaths are immense so data obtained are not reliable.

* It is not effective for the countries with geographical difficulties and lack of transportation facilities. 

* It is effective only for developed countries but not for developing countries.

* As the data collected are not analysed, published and distributed regularly due to which data are not considered much more useful. 

Some measure to Upgrade Vital Registration System 

Though Vital Registration System is the most effective source of population data in developed countries and but in developing countries like Nepal, India, Bhutan, Pakistan, etc. Where illiteracy rates are high and communication are poor, this system doesn't become effective though implemented. In this regard following are some measure to upgrade this methods: 

* Concept of registration the vital events should be developed in the people.

* Separate institution should be managed for registering the vital events. 

* The knowledge of advantages of registering the vital events should be given to the people. 

* Well-trained manpower should be managed for vital registration. 

* Local vital registration officer should be presents regularly. 

Sample Survey

A sample survey is another source of demographic data carried out in a scientifically selected area which covers only a section or portion (sample) of the population under consideration. A sample survey can be defined as " the process of collecting, compiling, evaluating and publishing of demographic, social and economic data about the sample population at a specified time." Living Standards Survey, Demographic Health Survey, Contraceptives Prevalence

Survey, Fertility and Family Planning Survey etc. are the some example of sample survey.

Population data are collected from a sample of the population which may be representative of the whole population. In a census where cenus is not conducted, population data are collected through sample survey and some estimates are made of its size, growth, structure and characteristic. Even in countries where regular census operation are conducted, the need for collection of population data through sample survey is felt, for a census is taken in most countries only once in ten years. This is very important in the sense that census is taken in each decade, and of course there will be so many things that will happen between the periods.

Sample Surveys was started from later half of nineteenth century from Britain and its uses get accelerated after 1950s. In 1956 Proncenton University had established population research centre and conducted around 400 sample survey on knowledge, attitude and practices related to population for the first time. Now it is the most popular method of data collection in the world.

With the help of trained interviewrs and carefully prepared questionnaires, some special aspects of the population can be studied in depth. For example, information on abortions, contraception, etc, so essential for the study of fertility, can never be obtained from a census, but only through special sample surveys. The quality of data obtained through sample surveys is better than that obtained from a census because they are collected by a comparatively small number of well-trained interviewrs. However, sample survey can never take the place of a cenus or vital registrations.

Generally, Sample Surveys are of following two types:

* Longitudinal Sample Surveys: Surveys are conducted in multiple rounds within the time interval.

* Cross Sectional Sample Surveys: Surveys is conducted in single round.

Advantages Of a Sample Surveys

* Demographic and socio-economic changes between the two census.

* Effectiveness of a program after a certain period of time, ie; family planning services, unmet need in regards to FP services etc.

* Affordable cost in comparison to cenus method.

* Detailed information in a particular area of study.

Limitation/ Drawbacks of Sample Surveys

* There will be a problem of producing data if experts are not available as it requires well-trained experts for questionnaires preparations, sample selection, collections and analysis of data and information.

* Data may not be representative of the total population, particularly where the sample size is small. 

* Often not suitable for producing benchmark data.

* As data are collected from a subset of units and inferences made about the whole population, the data are subject to 'sampling' error.

Census

 

Census is defined as an enumeration or complete population count at a point in time within a specified geographical area.  A census provides more reliable and accurate data if properly enumerated. Main source of population data for the study of population is population census. In 1958, UN has defined the census as " A census is the total population of collecting, compiling, analysing and publishing demographic, economic and social data in a specified time or times to all person in a country."

Looking at the history of census taking, the word 'census' was derived from the Latin word 'censure', meaning to value or tax. In fact, in ancient times, the purpose of census taking was limited with a view to identify persons who could be taxed and recruited for military services. Such limited motives restricted the scope of a census. In such census, women and children were seldom included.

The conducting of censuses has a long history, but modern censuses were first held in the seventeen century. By the end of eighteenth and beginning of the nineteenth century many countries had held their first centuries. Some countries including Ethiopia have only recently held their first censues (i.e. in 1984 A.D.) 

The Athenians and the Greek took a census and carefully enumerated person's of military age when a danger of war was  imminent and counted the general population when threatened with food shortages. Thus it can be seen that in the earlier period some sort of counting of the population was occasionally undertaken only when the need arose and was often limited to specific segments of the population. 

The modern census suffers differ completely from the early attempts at the counting any population. The modern concept of a population census took shape only in the seventeenth and the eighteenth centuries. The United States of America had its first census in 1790, and England and France in 1801. This concept of undertaking population census involves a complete enumeration of the entire population and the collection of information about some important characteristics of each person at regular intervals with a view to obtaining knowledge about the trends in population growth and its structure and characteristics.

While taking census, two types of errors may occur during data collections which are Coverage error and Content Error. Coverage error includes over counting and under counting mainly from the side of enumerators whereas Content error includes those errors mainly from interviews sides such as not to give accurate age, age preference and so on.

Features/ Qualities of  Census

* Census cover the total population of all regions of country.

* Important characteristics of each person are recorded, for example , age , sex, marital status, religion literacy and educational attainment, occupation and other characteristics. 

* A census is taken at a regular interval, i.e., a reference period is five years or 10 years. In Nepal, like in other developing countries, census has been taken at every 10 years interval from 1961 onwards though the reference period was not the same during the period 1911-1961.

Coverage Information Of Census

Census is the main source population statistics. It includes not only the counting of people but also informations related to economic, social and demographic characteristics of all citizen of the country. For taking census, mainly two types of questions are used which includes individual schedules and household schedule. Individual schedule contains personal description like; age, gender, marital status, occupation, religions, caste-ethnicity, educational status etc. whereas household schedule contains descriptions regarding the familial status like: no. of family member, migration, land ownership, employment status, facilities available such as: electricity, drinking water, residences etc. in it.

Mainly census cover the following information in it: 

1) Geographical Characteristics: 

It includes;

a) place of presence during census time

b) place of residence ( average) 

c) birth place 

d) place of working 

2) Personal and Household characteristics: 

It includes; 

a) Age 

b)Gender

c) Relationship with household head 

d) marital status etc

3) Economic Characteristics:

It includes; 

a) Occupations 

b) Industries

c) Employment etc.

Steps in Conducting Census

The major steps to be followed in a census include: 

* Planning and preparation 

* Collecting information

* Compilation and analysis 

* Evaluation 

Methods/ Technique of Census 

 There are two techniques of conducting census; De- Jure method and De-facto method.

A) De-Jure Method 

This technique is the counting of people according to the permanent place of location or residences. In this method enumeration is done within the specified interval of time (generally 2 weeks). In this method enumeration is done in day time. Limited no of enumerators are mobilize for taking census in the given interval in time. This method can be applied even the country with geographical difficulty, weak peace and security and economically backward. There is a danger of double counting of people in this method.

Advantages

* It gives permanent picture of a community. 

* It provides more realistic and useful statistics.

Disadvantage 

* Some persons may be omitted from the count. A household member who is temporarily away from home may be missed from being counted unless the enumerators makes sure that nobody is missing. 

* Some may be counted twice. 

* Information collected regarding persons aways from home is often incomplete or incorrect. 

B) De-Facto Method 

This technique of conducting census refers to counting persons where they are present at the time of the census period. In this method enumeration is done in full moon night of specified one day. In this method enumeration is done at a night time. More no of enumerators are mobilize for taking census in short period of time. This method is cannot be applied for those country where there is geographical difficult, weak peace and security and economically backward. There is a danger of omissions of people from count in this method.

Advantages 

* There is less chance for the omission of persons from the count.

Disadvantages

* Difficult to obtain information regarding persons in transit. These are persons who are, for example travelling and have left their area of permanent residence but haven't reached the areas of destinations during the census day.

* It provides incorrect picture of the population in a community. 

Advantages Of  Census 

* It is the reliable sources of population size, births, deaths and migration rate along with other demographic variables. 

* It gives the information about economic activities, occupational composition, and industrial level of whole population of the country. 

* With the help of census life table can be constructed for the projection of morality rate.

* It helps to identify the economically active and dependent population of the country. 

* It helps for comparative study of statistical data of different country.

Uses Of  Census

* Changes in population size and growth rates, age structures.

* Level and trends of the three demographic drivers, fertility, mortality and migration; and their differentials.

* Socio-economic characteristics of people.

* Population projection for the future. 

Limitation/ Drawbacks Of  Census 

* It is very costly and difficult to manage.

* It takes long time to process data, when result is revealed the population trend may take another mode.

* Modification of national and administrative boundaries can create problems.

* If the enumerators are not well-trained, exact data can lack.

Bongaart's Proximate Determinats Of Fertility

In the year 1970, Bongaart refined the Davis and Blake's eleven intermediate variables of fertility into nine direct determinants of fertility called 'proximate determinats of fertility '. According to the Bongaarts, " the proximate determinants of fertility are the biological and behavioral factors through which social, economic and environmental 

variables affects fertility ".

The proximate determinants of fertility can be classified in two groups: 

1) Proximate Determinats Influencing Length of Reproductive Span

2) Proximate Determinats Influencing the rate of child-bearing within the Reproductive Span.

1) Proximate Determinats Influencing Length of Reproductive Span 

It includes the time period between first menstruation/ menarche and menopause. The menarche marks the beginning of the reproductive span or period and menopause marks the end of the reproductive period. It also includes marriage, divorce and separation, windowhood etc. which may have positive or negative impact in fertility. 

2) Proximate Determinats Influencing the rate of child bearing within the Reproductive Span 

Within the reproductive span, the married and fecund women reproduce at a rate inversely related to the average duration of the birth interval. Higher fertility is associated with short birth interval and lower fertility is associated with long birth intervals. The duration or length of her birth interval is determined by following components: 

1) Post-Partum infecundable period 

2) Conception Wait

3) Gestation period 

The above component of birth interval can be shown in the following diagram: 

a. Birth Interval without Intrauterine Death

b. Time Added by Intrauterine Death

1) The Post-Partum Infecundable Period

After the child-birth, a women passes through an infecundable period during which the normal pattern of ovulation and menstruation is absent, this is called Post-Partum infecundable period. The length of Post-Partum Infecundable period is primarily determined by the length of breastfeeding. With the increase in the duration of breastfeeding, the length of the amenorrhea period also increases which inturn increases the Post-Partum amenorrhea period. 

2) The waiting time to Conception 

This period which is also known as fecundable or ovulatory interval comprises the period from onset of ovulation after child-birth to conception. The length of this interval is determined by  natural fecundability and the use and effectiveness of contraception. Where  natural fertility is high and no use of contraceptive method is made the period of conception wait shorter. This period is lengthened with declining natural fertility and with higher practice and effectiveness of conception. 

3) Gestation period 

The period of full-term pregnancy doesnot vary much and its duration is assumed to be nine months. However, in case of pregnancy ends prematurely in a spontaneous or induced intrauterine death, the duration of the birth internal is lengthened by the additional components as plane B in the above figure.

Thus it is observed that the seven proximate determinants are:

1.Marriage

2. Onset of permanent sterility

3. Post-Partum in-fecundability 

4. Natural fecundability or frequency of intercourse

5. Use and effectiveness of contraception 

6. Spontaneous intrauterine mortality; and 

7. Induced abortion

 It is clear that the first two of these seven determinants determine the length of reproductive span and the other five determine the rate of child-bearing.

Intermediate Variable Framework Of Davis and Blake

Davis and Blake (1956)3 identified a set of 11 'intermediate variables' which directly affect fertility which they grouped into the following three categories. Bongaarts (1978) further refined the list of proximate determinants.

Factors Affecting Intercourse Variables

A. Those governing the formation and dissolution of unions in the reproductive period

1. Age of entry into sexual unions
2. Permanent celibacy: proportions of women never entering sexual unions
3. Amount of reproductive period spent after or between unions
   1. When unions are broken by divorce, separation, or desertion
   2. When union are broken by death of husband

B. Those governing the exposure to intercourse within union

4. Voluntary abstinence
5. Involuntary abstinence (from impotence, illness, unavoidable but temporary separations)
6. Coital frequency (excluding periods of abstinence)

Factors Affecting Conception Variables

7. Fecundity or infecundity, as affected by involuntary causes
8. Use or non-use of contraception
9. Fecundity or infecundity, as affected by voluntary causes

Factors Affecting Gestation Variables

10. Foetal mortality from involuntary causes
11. Foetal mortality from voluntary causes

In the process of child bearing three stages may be easily identified:

1) Intercourse

2)Conception 

The Optimum Theory Of Population

 

Introduction

Criticizing the approach of the Malthusian Theory of Population, modern economists Edwin Cannan and Carr Saunders of London School of Economics have developed a new theory known as Optimum Theory Of Population.

It is also called modern theory of population. In recent years, Prof. Robbins, Dalton and Carr - Saunders have refined and polished the theory and put it in a more presentable form. 

This theory is an improvement over the Malthusian Theory. 

Statement of the Theory:

The founder of the theory state it as "Given  the natural resources, stock of capital and the state of technical knowledge, there will be definite size of population with the per capita income. The population which hasas the highest per capita income is known as Optimum population. "

Optimum Population:

The economist like Carr Saunders considered 'optimum population' as that which produces maximum welfare. On the  other hand , Prof. Cannan defined this theory in terms of ' return to labour '. He remarked, "Knowledge and circumstances remaining the same, there is what may be called maximum return when the amount of labor is such that both an increase and decrease in it would diminish proportionate return." Similarly, Bounding has rightly observed, "Optimum population is that at which standard of living is maximum.

1) Under Population

If the actual population in a country is less than the optimum or ideal population, there will not be enough people to exploit all the resource of the county fully. Thus, the population and the per capita will be lower. 

2) Over Population 

If the actual population is a above the level of optimum population, there will be too many people to work efficiently and produce the maximum goods and the highest per capita income. As a result, the per capita income became poorer than before. This is the stage of over population. In other words, if the per capita income is low due to many people, the population under these circumstances would be over population. 

Assumption: 

The Optimum theory is based on two important assumption:

1) The proportion of working population to total population remains constant as the population of the country increases.

2) As the population of a country increases, the natural resources, the capital stock and state of technology remain unchanged. 

Diagrammatic Representation of the theory:

In the diagram, volume of population is shown along OX axis and income per head along OY- axis. OS is the income per head which gives only subistence wage rate to the population. This level of wages puts the minimum limit to the income per head. 

The subistence income per head can prevail with two levels of population:

1) When population is too small to exploit the country's resources with minimum efficiency. This is the level of OA population. 

2) When population is too large and the efficiency falls to give only a subistence income to the labour force. This is the level of OC population. 

OB shows optimum population which uses the available resources to give itself the maximum income per head. For a population less than OB, income per head increases with the increase in population.  For a population higher than OB, income per head can increase with the decrease in population through preventive checks.

The dotted curve in the diagram shows the level of income per head with an improvement in technology or expansion of foreign trade. This will help to raise the income curve and generate population growth until wages are once again equal to subistence level.

Daltons Formula:

Prof. Dalton expresses the theory in the form of a formula which is given below;

If M is zero, population is optimum, when M  is  positive, it is over population, when M is negative, it  is under population. Therefore, optimum population is not fixed and a rigid one. It is rather variable and relative to resources and technology. Optimum population is not just an economic concept but qualitative in nature. Prof. Cannan has  correctly remarked, " It  is being perpetually altered by the progres of knowledge and other changes affecting the economic system. It is, thus, a dynamic concept. It may be higher or lower as different methods of production are used."

Demerits or criticism :

1) Difficult to Determine Optimum population:

It  is extremely difficult to know the optimum population of a country at any time. Many factors like technical knowledge, stock of capital, per capita income and natural resources etc have to be taken into account for this purpose.

2) A Static Theory:

The Optimum theory is criticized as a static short period theory. It ignores changes in natural and human resources which affect per capita income. This theory is also silent about the important questions of the determinants of population growth.

3) Neglects Biological and Sociological Factors:

Some critics also agrue  that this theory has not taken into account the biological and sociological factors which govern the  size and growth population. Strictly speaking, this theory is not a theory of population. It simply explains the state of population with reference to per capita income.

4) Not a Realistic Theory:

It is pointed out that two assumptions on which  the theory has been based, are not realistic. So, the pratical value of this theory is reduced. In fact, natural resources, technical knowledge and production methods are generally changeable.

Theory Of Demographic Transition

Introduction

It is the theory of the transition from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as a country or regions develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. Most developed countries have completed the demographic transition and 

have low birth rates, most developing countries are in the process of this transition.

History of the Theory 

This theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by American demographer Warren Thompson. Laundry also made similar observations in 1934. In the 1940s and 1950s. Notestein developed a more formal theory of demographic transition. 

Explanation Of The Theory 

This theory is based on the following assumption;

1) When the birth and  death rates decreases, death rate decreases first.

2) Due to social, economic and other changes in any country, the existing high birth and death rates decrease to low birth and death rates.

Notestein distinguished three demographic state: 

1) Pre-transtional stage 

In this stage, there is high birth and death rates as a result the growth of population is not possible.

2) Transitional stage

In this stage, there is declining birth and death rates. In this stage, the death rates declines fastly than birth rate due to this there is a rapid population growth.

3) Post-transitional stage 

In this stage, there is low birth rates and death rates. 

In 1947 C.P. Blacker identified five stages of demographic transition 

1) High Stationary Stage

It has high birth and death rates and has a stable population. Agriculture base economy and less per capita country is said to be in this stage. In recent years, most of the countries in this  world has crossed this stage.

2) The Early Expanding Stage

In this stage, there is high birth but death rate is rapidly declining due to this there is a rapid population growth. The reason behind this is the improvement in health facilities. Countries like Nepal, India and Bangladesh are in this stage.

3) The Late Expanding Stage 

In this stages, there is slowly declining birth rates and rapidly declining death rates as a result the population is slowly increasing. The countries like USA, Canada, Japan etc are said to be in this stage. 

4)  The Low Stationary Stage 

This stage has low and equal birth and death rates. There is no actual growth in the population. Countries like Australia, Germany, New Zealand are in this stage.

5) The Declining Stage

In this stage, the  death rate exceeds birth rates. Developing countries like Hungary, France etc fall in this category. 

Limitation/ Criticism of this theory

1) It is a model rather than theory. 

2) It is  not supported by the history of all countries such as in France, birth rate fall faster than death rate.

3) This theory is linked to the experience of western countries whose historical demographic trends were by themselves far from uniform.

4) It doesnot provide a time frame for a country to move from one  stage to another.

Malthusian Theory of Population

Introduction

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) was the key figure to analyses the population statistics. His formulation on population was a landmark in the history of population theories. He generalized the relationship between population factors and social change. In 1798 he wrote an essay on the Principle of Population. In this essay he wrote about the population growth and its affects to the world.

Basic Features of Malthusian Theory of Population

1) Rate of Population Growth:

In the view of Malthus, due to strong attractions of the sexes, the population could increases by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years. He argued the population expand by a Geometric progression (1,2,4,8 and so on).

2) Food Growth Rate :

Malthus argued that the growth of subistence is very low as compared to population growth. In his view, the subistence increases by Arithmetical ratio (1,2,3,4 and so on).

3) Imbalance between population and means of subsistence:

As population increases by Geometrical ratio and subsistence increases by Arithmetic progression, there is an imbalance between them. Food is compulsory to the human as a result the nature balances the population and food growth rates.

4) Checks to Population increase as suggested by Malthus:

In the view of Malthus, if population is not controlled then the gap between the food supply and population will continue to grow over time as a result nature will cause famine and other natural calamities to increase death rate which is a nature's check against population.

Explanation Of The Theory

In brief, Malthus theory states that:

1) Population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence.

2) Population invariably increase where means of subsistence increased, unless prevented by some very powerful and obvious checks.

3) These checks, and the checks which repress the superior power of population and keeps its effects on a level with the means of subsistence, are all resolvable into moral restraint, vice and misery.

Mathus based his above arguments on man's two basic characteristics essential to the maintenance of life:

1) The need of food, and

2) The passion between sexes.

It was the second which led people to marry at a relatively early age and would result in such a large number of births that the population would double itself in few years if unchecked by misery and vice.

Mathus referred to two classes of check which kept population down:

1) Positive means:

Famine, disease or war, pestilence and vicious customs about women.

2) Negative means:

Arifical means of birth control and suggested as an alternative that birth rate be decreased through preventive measures such as late marriage, moral restraint and chastity.

Malthus argued that the positive and preventive checks are inversely related to each other. In other words, where positive checks are very effective, the preventive checks are relatively less effective and vice versa.

However, in all societies, some of these checks are in constant operation although in varying magnitude of effectiveness. Malthus believed that despite these checks, the inability of increased food supply to keep abreast of population increase always results in some kind of a situation of overpopulation.

Criticism:

1) The basic assumption of Malthus, an theory are not correct

* humans donot have high desire for sex

* desire for sex depends upon age, health, occupation, religion, belief, environment etc.

* desire for sex and having children is not related.

2) The mathematical form of the Malthusian population theory is not correct.

3) Malthus compared population with means of subistence and not with total population.

Mercantilist and Physiocratic Views of Population

Mercantilist Views of Population

The Mercantilists, whose opinion on economic matters were widely accepted in the sixteenth, seventeenth, and eighteenth centuries , agree with the military statesmen that increases of population was an unqualified blessing.

Mercantilism was the dominant school of these periods. Population increase was encouraged through large families, early marriage and immigration. It was not a scientific theory of population. This school has two tents;

1) Increase in national wealth by production and export of goods

2) Rivalry among nations

A sizeable population was required for welfare. Inflation and human exploitation were its two natural consequences. Thus, merchantilism was a policy for obtaining economic and political gains. Because of the overemphasis on population increase, some people foresaw a scarcity of the means of subsistence, and therefore suggested some checks on population growth.

Physiocratic Views of Population

The Physiocratic school of thought, evolved in the middle of the eighteenth century, may be considered as the reactions against the populationist tents of the merchantilists. The Physiocratic didn't favour population increase at the cost of standards of living. They approved of such increase only if it was possible to extand agricultural production. Quesney, the founder of the physiocratic school, maintained that a large population was desirable only if it could be made comfortable.

Classical Theories Of Population

Many of the ancient philosophers like Confucius ( China ), Kautilya ( India), Ibn Khaldin (Arab), Plato (Greece) and modem thinkers like Adam Smith, David Richard and others, either directly or indirectly, have said somethings significant on population issues.

The ancient Chinese writers observed that mortality 

increases when food supply is insufficient, that premature marriage makes for high infant mortality rates, that war checks population growth and that costly marriage ceremonies reduce the marriage rates. In China, the doctrines of Confucius regarding family, marriage and procreation were favorable for population increase. 

The writers of early Greece, especially Plato and Aristotle, referred to the ' optimum '  population for city - states. They looked at population mainly  in terms of defence, security and government. Plato suggests a population of 5,000 citizens for a city - state as the ideal number. He suggested remedial measure for both under - population and over population. The Romans thought of population in terms of the expansion of their empire. They thought of several devices to promote increase in population. 

Kautilya , the author of Arthashastra, a classic of economics, thought of a large population as a source of political , economic and military power. He thought  of a population of 100 to 500 for a village.

Traditional Hindu philosophy considered marriage a sacrament ( sanskar) . Marriage of a girl before attaining puberty was considered a pious act ( pabitrakarya); hence child marriages have/ had been quite common. A girl was given in marriage in the form of kanyadan.  Procreation was considered a duty, and the  birth of a son was considered  a necessity for giving pitradan to the dead souls. A girl was denied the right of giving pitradan, hence, a male child was considered a necessity. Large families were considered an assets for economic pursuits. Later on, joint families were immensely valued in  Hindu society. 

Islam inadvertently encouraged population increase by allowing four wives. Child marriage become a part  of the Islamic ethos. Even today , Islam doesnot openly promote measure to check population increase.

Only Christianity emphasized celibacy and thought of marriage and reproduction as evils. However, later on, Christianity considered marriage necessary for procreation. Thus,  these views were more philosophical, moral and religious rather than the theories of Population.