World Population Changes from 1950

 

Population is not constant rather it is dynamic. It changes over time to time. Population changes time to time due to it’s driver- birth, death and migration. Birth and Death are the natural factors after 1950-s humans have controlled birth through the use of contraceptive devices and death through the advancement in the modern health system and technology. Advancement in technology has helped the human to control the natural increase of population but this advancement has caused to increase the migration (Ravenstein) which is the third driver of migration. This migration has helped to change the population in the various countries of the world.

Year	Population (in Billion)	Population Growth Rate
1950	2.55	-
1960	3	1.86%
1974	4	1.94%
1980	4.5	1.77%
1987	5	1.85%
1999	6	1.33%
2011	7	1.2%
2020	7.8	1.05%
2023	8	-
2030	8.5	-

In 1950 AD, the population of the world was only 2.55 billion. In 1960 AD, the population became 3 billion. The main reason in the increase in the population can be credited to the “baby boom.”  The population growth rate in 1960 AD was 1.86% and after 1980 AD, the growth rate of the population began to decrease. In 1999 AD, the population of the world became 6 billion with 1.33% of the growth rate. In 2011, the population of the world became 7 billion with 1.2% of the growth rate. It is estimated that in 2023 AD, the population will attain 8 billion. Although, the population is increasing, the growth rate of the population is decreasing slowly. The reason for this process is due to the increase in use of contraceptive device, increase in celibacy.

Inverse Concentric Zone Theory

 

Introduction: It was first conceptualized by Friedrich Engels in the mid-19^th century. Engels observed that the population of Manchester, England in 884 was residentially segregated on the basis of class. The preceding three theories of urban spatial structure apply only primarily to the cities of the MDCs .Many cities in the LDC follow different patterns rather than the preceding theories. Inverse Concentric Zone pattern is the reversal of the concentric zone model and one of the frequent pattern applicable in the cities of the LDCs. In cities of LDC, the central area is the place of residence of the elite class. The poor live on the periphery. Unlike most cities in the MDCs, social class in these places is inversely related to distance from the center of the city.

Explanation

It is the reversal of the concentric zone model which means instead of the rich moving away from central city, poor are moving away from central city. Social status is related to distance from center of the city and declines with increasing distance from the center.

Reason for this pattern:

a.      Lack of an adequate and dependable transportation system has restricted the elites to the center of the city so they have to close to their places of work.

b.     Functions of the city primarily administrative and religious/ cultural are controlled by the elite and are concentrated in the center of the city.

As many of the LDCs have begun to industrialize especially in the past 30 years, industrial growth have been primarily oriented in the cities center just as they were in the MDCs many decades ago. But, the newer and larger industrial establishments tend to locate not in the city centers but on the periphery often in industrial peaks or enterprises zones established by the government for the purpose of attracting both domestic and foreign investors because:

a.      City centers tend to be crowded for industrial plants.

b.     Elites in the city centers often do not wan large industrial plants near their place of work and residence.

 

Rural-Urban Linkage

 

It can be defined as the structural, social, economic, cultural and political relationships maintained between individuals and groups in urban environment and rural environment. It can also refer to spatial and sectoral flows that occur between rural to urban areas. The spatial flow means flow of people, goods, money, technology, knowledge, information, etc. Sectoral flow refers flow of agricultural products going to urban areas and goods from urban manufacturing areas going to more rural areas. Rural-urban linkage are connected in nature and forms of migration, production, consumption, financial and investment linkages that occur between rural and urban relationships. The exchange of money, goods, visits including social activities and communication with relatives and friends are indicators of rural-urban linkage. The nature and form of rural-urban linkage are not homogeneous as they are determined by the push and pull factors. The influence of push and pull factors can differ from one place to another and for different sectors.

Patterns of Rural-Urban Linkage

The analysis of rural and urban linkage is important because rural and urban livelihoods are interconnected. As incomes from agricultural decrease, rural households are forced to develop new and more complex forms of livelihoods strategies which include both agriculture and non-farm incomes as well as remittances. New spatial and sectoral patterns have emerged along the rural- urban continuum as a consequences of migration, road accessibility, information technologies and production flows. Rural women tend to be particularly more active in rural- urban trade. The relationship between rural and urban areas has been changing all over the world due to the number of factors including new settlement patterns which can be linked to economic and social transformations occurring throughout the world. The rural and urban areas are seen as the two end in a spatial continuum. In between rural and urban areas, there are peri-urban areas where urban and rural areas are spatially intermingled and interactions are most in tense. Peri-urban area lies in the middle of the continuum between rural and urban characteristics. It has the mixed characteristics of rural and urban.

Importance of Rural-Urban Linkage:

a.      The positive rural-urban linkage can contribute to equitable development hence helps to acquire regional balance.

b.     People of urban who are tired of the urban environment can enjoy rural environment due to the rural-urban linkage.

c.      Rural-urban linkage helps the transfer of knowledge and information in the people between rural and urban.

d.     Rural and urban linkage fulfills the need of the both rural and urban people.

e.      It helps to give a market for the agricultural and other products made in rural area and also helps  the rural people  to consume healthy and locally made agricultural and other products.

f.       It helps the people of rural area to migrate in urban area for job and also helps rural women to sell their products easily.

g.     It helps to fulfill the information, technology and development gap between the  rural and urban area.

Trend of Urbanization in Nepal

 

Nepal’s urban growth is primarily characterised by

i)                   an increase in the number of municipalities,

ii)                an expansion in the urban area,

iii)             a relatively steady increase in the urban population in the designated urban areas in the initial years,

 iv) a rapid increase of population in recent years,

iv)              consistent increases in the percentage share of urban population to the total population and rural population.

According to the Population Monograph of Nepal, reclassification contributed 38.8% of the urban growth, internal migration contributed 19.9% of the urban growth and annexation contributed 1.5% of the urban growth.

Urban Places, Population Sizes and % Share of Urban Population form 1952/54 to 2014

Year	Number of Urban Places	Population Size	Urban Population as a Share of the Total population
1952/54	10	238275	2.9%
1961	16	336222	3.7%
1971	16	461938	4%
1981	23	956721	6.4%
1991	33	1695719	9.2%
2001	58	3227879	17.9%
2011	58	4523820	17.1%
2014	130	7199514	27.2%

 

 

There has been a drastically increase in urban area and population from 1952/54 to 2001. In 1952/54, there were only 10 urban places and the share of the  urban population to the total population was only 2.9%.  But in  2001, the number of urban places was 58 and the share of the urban population to the total population was 17.9%. The increase in the urban places was about 48 and the increase in population was about more than a million. However, the period between 2001 and 2011 for urbanization was slow and steady, there was no significant change in the urban.  In 2014, the urbanization took a different level of pace, 2014 saw the increase of urban places from 58 in 2011 to 130  , thanks to the reclassification, internal migration and annexation. The share of the population has also increased from 17.1% to 27.2%.

Urban Population Growth Rates:

A general characteristics of the population growth rate in urban area of less developed countries is that the population growth rate of urban area is higher than the total population growth rate of country. Since, Nepal is also less developed countries, it also follows the same pattern.

Growth Rate of Urban and National total Population from 1961-2011

Year	Nepal’s Growth Rate (%)	Urban Growth Rate (%)
1961	1.65	3.44
1971	2.07	3.18
1981	2.66	7.28
1991	2.08	5.72
2001	2.25	6.44
2011	1.35	3.38
2014	1.35	8.08

From the above mentioned data, it is clear that the growth rate of Nepal is higher than the growth rate of urban. In 1961 AD, the urban growth rate of Nepal was 3 times greater than Nepal’ growth rate. This same pattern is followed in the succeeding years. In 2014 AD, the urban growth rate is about 8 time higher than the Nepal’ growth rate.