Todaro Migration Model

Introduction:

Michael P. Todaro, an economist developed an economic model of rural-urban migration which is known as “Todaro Model of Migration” in 1969 A.D.Todaro work is considered one of the starting points of the classic rural-urban migration theory. He proved the Ravenstein’s one of the law which stated that most of the migratory are rural born. In his theory, he stated that people of rural areas migrate to urban areas. The key hypothesis of Todaro’s model is mainly economic issues,earnings differential and the possibilities of

getting job at the destination.

Assumptions of the Model:

1.     Migration is primarily an economic phenomenon.

2.      Each potential migrant decides whether or not to migrate on the basis of expected income maximization.

3.      The probability of finding urban job at destination is sufficient.

4.      Probability of obtaining urban job is inversely related to the urban unemployment rate.

5.      All members of labour force compare their expected income for a given period of tume.

The individual’s decision to migrate depends upon the following principles:

1.      The real income differences between the urban and rural area.

2.      The probability of obtaining an urban job

Schematic Framework of Todaro Migration Model:

Explanation of the Figure:

In this schematic framework, decision of migration depends upon the perceived value of migration which is determined by the cost and return of migration. The return of migration is determined by the urban income, rural income, and psychic returns. The cost of migration is determined by the psychic costs, transport costs, cost of migration and opportunity costs. Urban income is determined by the urban remittances , probability of a urban job, self-employed earnings, education and urban wage. Rural Income is determined by the complementary factors, government policies, education, rural remittances and social system. The information flows from education,media, rural-urban contacts and distance helps to develop perceive value of migration.

Problems Related to Rural-Urban Migration:

1.     Urban centered development policy creates imbalances in rural-urban job opportunities

2.      The overflow of people into urban areas not only give rise to socio-economic problems in cities but also creates problems of labour shortages.

3.      Rural-Urban migration may lead not only to higher the levels of urban unemployment but also to lower levels of agricultural production.

4.      Urban job creation is not sufficient for the urban unemployment problems.

5.      Rural-urban migration must be minimized through creative and well-designed programs of integrated rural development.

6.      Wage subsidies and traditional scarcity-factor pricing can be counter productive.

Solutions:

1.     Creating an appropriate rural-urban economic balance.

2.      Expansion of small-scale and labor intensive industries.

3.      Elimination of factor price substitution.

4.     Choosing appropriate labor-intensive technologies of production.

5.     Modifying the direct linkage between education and employment.

6.      Reducing population growth through reduction in absolute poverty and inequality, particularly for women along with expanded provision of family planning and rural health services.